While I'm not familiar with surfaces, I can provide the theory for photoredox molecules. Presumably, this can be extended to surfaces with the correct level of theory, which perhaps others can elaborate on.
I'm quoting from reference 1 with some commentary in brackets
The reduction potentials associated with the excited states cannot
be directly measured [but testing different compounds can give an
upper bound] and are typically calculated from known cyclic
voltammetry (CV) and spectroscopic data
As an approximation, the excited-state potentials of a catalyst are related to its ground state potentials and its zero−zero excitation energy (E0,0). E0,0 can be estimated by the difference in energy between *PC and PC which can be approximated by the maximum emission of the catalyst [or simulation].
Oxidative Quenching
$E_{red}[PC^{+1}/PC^*] = E_{red}[PC^{+1}/PC] - E_{0,0}$
$\ce{PC^{+1} +e^{-1} -> PC^{*}}$
Reductive Quenching
$E_{red}[PC^*/PC^{-1}] = E_{red}[PC/PC^{-1}] + E_{0,0}$
$\ce{PC^{*} +e^{-1} -> PC^{-1}}$
Reference
Shining Light on Photoredox Catalysis: Theory and Synthetic Applications
Joseph W. Tucker and Corey R. J. Stephenson
The Journal of Organic Chemistry 2012 77 (4), 1617-1622
DOI: 10.1021/jo202538x